New findings on gasoline markets
On Tuesday 26 April 2022 Ritvana Rrukaj will hold a trial lecture on a prescribed topic and defend her thesis for the PhD degree at NHH.
Prescribed topic for the trial lecture:
«Forecasting and forecast evaluation for gasoline price and demand»
10:15, Aud M, NHH - Zoom
Title of the thesis:
«Essays on Energy Markets»
Few would disagree that these are hectic times for the energy industry. The restructuration of power markets initiated in the mid-1990s faces new economic, political, and technological challenges today. This thesis describes the Swedish retail gasoline market and the New York State wholesale electricity market (NYISO) and analyzes their dynamics.
The study of Swedish gasoline market shows that oil companies generate the highest profits in Stockholm, with margins that resemble those in the rural districts. By contrast, Gothenburg and Malmo show lower margins. This pattern suggests less competitive market in Stockholm than in other cities in Sweden, a result overlooked by previous studies.
Examining service and self-service stations for various brands reveals that all brands target a relatively fixed margin over time. The service brands exhibit a regional split, with brands alternating their market position between the highest, the middle, and the lowest gross margins. Among the self-service brands, St1 always captures higher margins than Jet. St1 and Jet’s margins never overlap at the national and regional levels, indicating low competition between the two providers.
Investigating pricing asymmetries using volume-adjusted prices, shows that the adjustments due to input cost changes take more days to be fully incorporated in the gasoline price compared to using pump prices. This result suggests that the oil companies are more concerned with the price-setting on days and stations with higher gasoline volumes.
Finally, considering the perspective of a NYISO market participant, Ritvana Rrukaj proposese a predictive non-linear model specification to capture a large range of potential relationships between load and prices, including annual, seasonal and weekly time windows to map peak and off peak daily variations. These predictions can assist a NYISO market participant in making more informed hedging decisions. The predictive accuracy is verified by out-of-sample forecasts.
12:15, Aud M, NHH
Members of the evaluation committee:
Professor Jonas Andersson (leader of the committee), Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
Professor Sjur Westgaard, Norwegian University of Science and Technolog
Lecturer Malvina Marchese, Cass Business School
Professor Leif Kristoffer Sandal (main supervisor), Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
Professor Jan Ubøe, Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
The trial lecture and thesis defence will be open to the public.